Posibilidades psíquicos
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Posibilidades psíquicos
Un muy interesante y útil artículo que han colgado en Torrent of fire. No me apetece ponerme a traducir a éstas horas pero los datos están bastante claros. Si no entendéis el inglés no os preocupéis que todo el texto son reflexiones. Lo único importante son los porcentajes de lanzar los poderes según el número de cargas de disformidad (warp charges) y las posibilidad de que saques unos peligros de la disformidad según el número de dados que lances (perils).
The Math of the New Psychic Phase
Chip Boyd May 22, 2014
The new Psychic Phase, and changes to psykers in general, is by far the largest change in 7th edition. But will it mean boards full of super poweful psykers? Or a general leaning away from our wizards of the 41st millennium? Let’s take a look at some math. Thanks to the folks from #endlesschat for sanity checks on this.
First, 6th edition odds:
Chance of a successful cast:
Leadership 7: 58.33%
Leadership 8: 72.22%
Leadership 9: 83.33%
Leadership 10: 91.67%
Chance of Perils of the Warp: 5.5%
Now, some 7th edition odds.
We will assume an infinite dice pool to get a range of probabilities, which you can adjust based on the ML+d6 that you have available each round. Probabilities for WC1, 2, and 3. There are no 4′s, that we know of.
Chance of successful cast for a 1 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 50%
2d6: 75%
3d6: 87.5%
4d6: 93.75%
5d6: 96.88%
6d6: 98.44%
7d6: 99.22%
8d6: 99.61%
9d6: 99.80%
10d6: 99.90%
Chance of successful cast for a 2 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 25%
3d6: 50%
4d6: 68.75%
5d6: 81.25%
6d6: 89.06%
7d6: 93.75%
8d6: 96.48%
9d6: 98.05%
10d6: 98.93%
Chance of successful cast for a 3 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 0%
3d6: 12.50%
4d6: 31.25%
5d6: 50.00%
6d6: 65.63%
7d6: 77.34%
8d6: 85.55%
9d6: 91.02%
10d6: 94.53%
Chance of perils in 7th edition:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 2.78%
3d6: 7.41%
4d6: 13.19%
5d6: 19.62%
6d6: 26.32%
7d6: 33.02%
8d6: 39.53%
9d6: 45.73%
10d6: 51.55%
So what does it all mean? Well, a few things. Previously, a Ld 10 psyker had a 91.67% chance of successfully casting any power they are able. Now, in order to do so, you’ll need to throw 4d6 for a WC1, 7d6 for a WC2, or 9d6 for a WC3 to remain at or around the same level of success. That is a lot of dice, and that means a MUCH higher chance to perils: 6th edition was 5.5%, while on 4d6 you’re at 13.19%, 7d6 is 33.02%, and 9d6 is 45.73%!
One thing worth considering is the size of a dice pool. Each player receives d6 + their Mastery Level, so anywhere from 2 dice (1 on d6 and a single ML1 psyker) to upwards of 20 or 30 for outlandish, totally ridiculous psyker spam armies. I think we can make some estimates on what we’re likely to see on the table, though.
Eldar: ML6 (2 Farseers), ML13 (1 Farseer, 5 Spiritseers), ML16 (2 Farseers, 10 Warlocks)
Chaos Daemons: ML12 (4x Level 3 Psykers) to ML18 (6x Level 3 Psykers)
Marines: ML4 (2 Max Librarians) to ML10 (Primaris Allies)
On the low end, these psyker lists are going to have a lot of trouble reliably casting things that need 2 or more warp charges. Particularly with a low roll on the d6, hunting for a pre-7th edition success rate could be all but impossible. And, when it’s achieved, you better hope there’s a wound to spare in case you perils and the table result is common (on a 1, 2, 3, or 4, you automatically lose a wound, no saves of any kind).
Overall, I think that psykers were significantly nerfed in this edition. It is harder to reliably cast, and when you up your odds, you in turn up your chances for certain doom. Coupled with the changes to how your opponent can dispel your successful casts, even if they are blessings (though difficult), is a small, but significant change.
We’ll see how this all plays out, however. I plan on battle testing my beaststar tomorrow, so tune in to our twitch channel for some coverage on the new edition.
The Math of the New Psychic Phase
Chip Boyd May 22, 2014
The new Psychic Phase, and changes to psykers in general, is by far the largest change in 7th edition. But will it mean boards full of super poweful psykers? Or a general leaning away from our wizards of the 41st millennium? Let’s take a look at some math. Thanks to the folks from #endlesschat for sanity checks on this.
First, 6th edition odds:
Chance of a successful cast:
Leadership 7: 58.33%
Leadership 8: 72.22%
Leadership 9: 83.33%
Leadership 10: 91.67%
Chance of Perils of the Warp: 5.5%
Now, some 7th edition odds.
We will assume an infinite dice pool to get a range of probabilities, which you can adjust based on the ML+d6 that you have available each round. Probabilities for WC1, 2, and 3. There are no 4′s, that we know of.
Chance of successful cast for a 1 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 50%
2d6: 75%
3d6: 87.5%
4d6: 93.75%
5d6: 96.88%
6d6: 98.44%
7d6: 99.22%
8d6: 99.61%
9d6: 99.80%
10d6: 99.90%
Chance of successful cast for a 2 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 25%
3d6: 50%
4d6: 68.75%
5d6: 81.25%
6d6: 89.06%
7d6: 93.75%
8d6: 96.48%
9d6: 98.05%
10d6: 98.93%
Chance of successful cast for a 3 Warp Charge spell:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 0%
3d6: 12.50%
4d6: 31.25%
5d6: 50.00%
6d6: 65.63%
7d6: 77.34%
8d6: 85.55%
9d6: 91.02%
10d6: 94.53%
Chance of perils in 7th edition:
1d6: 0%
2d6: 2.78%
3d6: 7.41%
4d6: 13.19%
5d6: 19.62%
6d6: 26.32%
7d6: 33.02%
8d6: 39.53%
9d6: 45.73%
10d6: 51.55%
So what does it all mean? Well, a few things. Previously, a Ld 10 psyker had a 91.67% chance of successfully casting any power they are able. Now, in order to do so, you’ll need to throw 4d6 for a WC1, 7d6 for a WC2, or 9d6 for a WC3 to remain at or around the same level of success. That is a lot of dice, and that means a MUCH higher chance to perils: 6th edition was 5.5%, while on 4d6 you’re at 13.19%, 7d6 is 33.02%, and 9d6 is 45.73%!
One thing worth considering is the size of a dice pool. Each player receives d6 + their Mastery Level, so anywhere from 2 dice (1 on d6 and a single ML1 psyker) to upwards of 20 or 30 for outlandish, totally ridiculous psyker spam armies. I think we can make some estimates on what we’re likely to see on the table, though.
Eldar: ML6 (2 Farseers), ML13 (1 Farseer, 5 Spiritseers), ML16 (2 Farseers, 10 Warlocks)
Chaos Daemons: ML12 (4x Level 3 Psykers) to ML18 (6x Level 3 Psykers)
Marines: ML4 (2 Max Librarians) to ML10 (Primaris Allies)
On the low end, these psyker lists are going to have a lot of trouble reliably casting things that need 2 or more warp charges. Particularly with a low roll on the d6, hunting for a pre-7th edition success rate could be all but impossible. And, when it’s achieved, you better hope there’s a wound to spare in case you perils and the table result is common (on a 1, 2, 3, or 4, you automatically lose a wound, no saves of any kind).
Overall, I think that psykers were significantly nerfed in this edition. It is harder to reliably cast, and when you up your odds, you in turn up your chances for certain doom. Coupled with the changes to how your opponent can dispel your successful casts, even if they are blessings (though difficult), is a small, but significant change.
We’ll see how this all plays out, however. I plan on battle testing my beaststar tomorrow, so tune in to our twitch channel for some coverage on the new edition.
Luzbel- Mensajes : 1576
Fecha de inscripción : 23/09/2011
Localización : Averno
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
Lo que yo decía. Mejor sacar a lo autarcas que a los videntes. Total para que le salga 1 poder ... con suerte.
Ahiiiiii
Ahiiiiii
solman- Mensajes : 431
Fecha de inscripción : 31/10/2011
Edad : 43
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
Aun sueño con la afinidad, (tirar a 3+ en lugar de 4) que se rumoreo al principio . Los eldar tirarian a 3+ sus tablas , los caoticos las suyas de sus marcas y los bichos la suya. Eso cambiaría los porcentajes y los haria algo mas favorables, obligando a muchas razas a jugar con sus tablas en lugar de picar en las otras disciplinas
stupendoman- Mensajes : 2120
Fecha de inscripción : 22/09/2011
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
A ver si es verdad. Sería un puntazo
solman- Mensajes : 431
Fecha de inscripción : 31/10/2011
Edad : 43
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
La probabilidad es la ciencia que demuestra que si me operan de fimosis y a ti no, a los dos nos han cortado medio prepucio.
Aertes D- Mensajes : 1727
Fecha de inscripción : 22/09/2011
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
Ya sabes lo que dicen, están las medias verdades, las mentiras y la estadística...
Luzbel- Mensajes : 1576
Fecha de inscripción : 23/09/2011
Localización : Averno
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
Que no es ninguna de las anteriores, pero la verdad tampoco.
Aertes D- Mensajes : 1727
Fecha de inscripción : 22/09/2011
Re: Posibilidades psíquicos
Le falta el análisis de la probabilidad de dispersar. Teniendo en cuenta que ahora hay que sacar tantos seises como éxitos tuvo el rival en la tirada para lanzar el hechizo, lo normal es que se pueda dispersar, como mucho, un hechizo por ronda (dos hechizos si tenemos un ejército con múchos magos). La conclusión que saco, sumado a las tablas del artículo, es que ahora va a salir más a cuenta tener muchos hechizos de carga 1, y que los hechizos de carga 3 van a ser excepciones (probablemente sólo se usarán fiablemente en caso de combos de equipo desequilibrados y demás bugs de la edición)
Una pena que no se puedan comprar pergaminos de dispersión. Estoy casi seguro de que no se podrá, porque últimamente GW parece odiar las certezas y amar la aleatoriedad
Una pena que no se puedan comprar pergaminos de dispersión. Estoy casi seguro de que no se podrá, porque últimamente GW parece odiar las certezas y amar la aleatoriedad
Funcioneta- Mensajes : 777
Fecha de inscripción : 04/10/2011
Edad : 46
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